K'Slautern @ Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga 12/17

[souzathelooza]

Borussia Dortmund at home vs Kaiserslautern.

After amasing comeback against Hertha, K'lautern has been horrible, with 3 defeats in a row M'gladbach 1:2, Wolfsburg 1:4, Schalke 0:2. They are 0W 5L 1D in their last 7 fixtures. K'Slautern's away record is awful
2W 16L 0D, and their defense on road is the worst in the league(22 goals conceded). K'lautern has 5 consecutive defeats on road.sure.home,they have some high-class players,their fans are always big motivation for them and they lose very rarely at home.Dortmund's home record 6W 10L 2D...
22GF/9GA. Injuries have really plagued K'Slautern more so than Dortmund.
I'm laying the 1 1/2 goals at home with Borussia.

BORUSSIA -1 1/2 +130

enjoy.

[This message was edited by souzathelooza on December 17, 2003 at 12:21 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

write up is right on the money. only the 1.5 goals scares me. i'm pretty sure that dortmund will win straight up, but any higher hdc than -1 is risky (but i guess you found a good price at +130)

 

[MadCapper]

I took Dortmund -1/2 -117 for 1st half.

Anyone able to give updates on this match?

 

41st minute 0-0 MC

Hopefully you get one before halftime!

sb

 

1-0

 

[MadCapper]

1-0 in 45 minute.


-MC

 

[MadCapper]

Thanx Sportsbet.

I will take a look at the 2nd half line.


-MC

 

[chriscol]

1-1..terrible mistake by the goalie

 

[chriscol]

final score 1-1

 

[acw]

only the 1.5 goals scares me.
You are aware of these!
In general (not always) it is better to bet a team straight up than them giving a large handicap with a nice payout!
Dick Delicious already grabbed this in Fighting for the favourites.

 

[souzathelooza]

LOSER.....

 

[matahari]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> only the 1.5 goals scares me.
You are aware of these!
In general (not always) it is better to bet a team straight up than them giving a large handicap with a nice payout! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

acw,

If there's a value on betting a team straight up, would this mean you'll have the same (if any) value on handicap ? For me there's no correlation and you have the same chances of finding value on the other side.
Imagine two teams with one team winning 80% of meetings, and in 80% of cases the win is by 1 goal. What handicap would you establish ? Would you derive the handicap from the home/draw/away percentages ?

 

[acw]

matahari,

Your post is totally unclear to me! Please take some time explaining it a little better! A few examples will help!

 

[JackDee]

"If there's a value on betting a team straight up, would this mean you'll have the same (if any) value on handicap ? For me there's no correlation and you have the same chances of finding value on the other side.
Imagine two teams with one team winning 80% of meetings, and in 80% of cases the win is by 1 goal. What handicap would you establish? Would you derive the handicap from the home/draw/away percentages?"

That's my opinion too, but it seems bookmakers set the handicap, most of the time, according to the 1/x/2 percentages.

 

[matahari]

acw,

To put it clear: a value on an outright win of a side doesn't mean there's value on that side to beat the handicap.
As for the examples, there're plenty of them, especially in the national teams competitions and friendlies. I can come up with some, if there's a strong urge.

 

[acw]

To put it clear: a value on an outright win of a side doesn't mean there's value on that side to beat the handicap.
Obviously not! If a team to win is at 2.10 and the Asian handicap is -1.5 Even Money, then there is value on the outright and no value on the handicap.

If there's a value on betting a team straight up, would this mean you'll have the same (if any) value on handicap ?
It all depends on the prices of course.

For me there's no correlation and you have the same chances of finding value on the other side.
I know what you are talking about. In the old days I did sometimes kind of middle between the European home/draw/away market and the Asian handicap market. These days I am much more opinionated. I am a member now of the Beantownjim fanclub. I bet to win.

 

[matahari]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> To put it clear: a value on an outright win of a side doesn't mean there's value on that side to beat the handicap.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Obviously it's also valid otherwise, that is if there's no value on an outright win, it's possible you can have value on handicap.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> To put it clear: a value on an outright win of a side doesn't mean there's value on that side to beat the handicap.
Obviously not! If a team to win is at 2.10 and the Asian handicap is -1.5 Even Money, then there is value on the outright and no value on the handicap. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Acw, seriously, where can you find something like that ? Confess, you still bet with Ido ?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>For me there's no correlation and you have the same chances of finding value on the other side.
I know what you are talking about. In the old days I did sometimes kind of middle between the European home/ draw/away market and the Asian handicap market. These days I am much more opinionated. I am a member now of the Beantownjim fanclub. I bet to win.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I did middle myself counted times, the times it went right, my self-esteem went sky high. The last time I remember very much was Croatia-Bulgaria, with all the rumours about it being fixed for Croatia to win by 1 goal, Canbet was generous enough to have Bulgaria +1.5 @ 1.60.